Why November Has Been So Warm: Will We Have a ‘Green Christmas’? [FORECAST MAP]

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Trees in the autumn.

How warm has November 2026 been? So warm that it’s shaping up to be one of the warmest Novembers on record. That has a lot of people wondering whether winter will ever get here.

The National Weather Service says the warm temperatures are the result of El Nino. And it’s well-documented that El Nino winters result in warmer weather for much of the country. According to WOOD TV, El Nino is when “warm Pacific Ocean waters near South America drive changes to the atmospheric pattern.”

The weather map for November 14 through the 20th, posted by the National Weather Service, shows above average to leaning above temperatures for most of the country, with the highest temperatures concentrated in the Midwest.

El Nino Will Likely Continue Bringing Warmer Temperatures

El Nino will likely result in a warmer winter because “temperatures have been regularly above average by several degrees December through February and that will likely hold true once again,” WOOD TV reported.

“There’s a strong chance of a green Christmas” for some in the Midwest at least, the television station reported. However, there is still a chance for some snow flurries in the Great Lakes region around Thanksgiving weekend, USA Today reported.

As one example of the warmer weather, Milwaukee, WI experienced the 6th average highest temperature in October and is expecting higher winter temperatures as well. According to Fox 6 Milwaukee, the U.S. national forecast for December, January and February includes “warmer temperatures for the northern half of the country and wetter weather for the southern half.” That city typically experiences about half of the normal snowfall during El Nino winters, Fox 6 reported. So it’s likely to be a warm winter.

Winter Cold ‘Still Seems a Long Way Away’

The Fox Forecast team found that the polar vortex “has been disrupted at the earliest point in a calendar year on record.” But that’s not resulting in warmer weather or lots of snow.

“So far, models continue to show no major cold air outbreaks in the future,” the FOX Forecast Center said.

“The ongoing El Nino remains the dominant teleconnection to influence this forecast,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center wrote in a detailed November forecast. “Toward the early part of November, above-average heights are forecast across Canada and northern parts of the Contiguous United States.”

Continue to Expect a Very Warm November Across the U.S.

According to USA Today, cold winter weather “still seems a long way away” due to the latest forecast. Accuweather’s Chad Merrill told USA Today that “a very warm month is expected nationally. It will likely rank in the top 10 for warmest Novembers.”

“Northern California into the Northwest into the northern portion of the Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the East will be warmer than the historical average for temperatures,” Merrill told USA Today.